WSH beat SEA 4–1. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Marcus Johansson scored on the power play at 13:15 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 54% to 75%. Philipp Grubauer saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:51 |  SEA | Adam Larsson from Morgan Geekie, Karson Kuhlman | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 5:20 | WSH | Anthony Mantha from Matt Irwin, Alexander Alexeyev | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 13:15 | WSH | Marcus JohanssonPP from Sonny Milano, Alex Ovechkin | 1–2 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 18:54 | WSH | Lars EllerEN from Anthony Mantha | 1–3 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:56 | WSH | Alex OvechkinEN from Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson | 1–4 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Borgen D | 16:18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 11:36 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 4:06 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 19:16 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 12:01 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:58 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 25:54 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.33 | +0.44 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 17:05 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:45 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:19 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 20:18 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 19:06 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:43 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 26:09 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 12:10 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.27 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 19:12 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 8:52 | −0.36 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 13:29 | −0.44 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 58:44 | +2.06 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 7:42 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 10:22 | +0.31 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 11:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.06 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:24 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.13 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Irwin D | 13:56 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 17:59 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:36 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 7:57 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 22:20 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 20:30 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 15:13 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 21:50 | −0.07 | +0.23 | −0.07 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:51 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 17:37 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 14:22 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 23:50 | 1 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.33 | −0.55 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Conor Sheary L | 21:22 | −0.38 | +0.24 | −0.44 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 20:03 | −0.40 | +0.30 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | +1.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.