DAL beat OTT 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 3.8, DAL 3.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tyler Seguin scored at 4:31 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:07 | DAL | Miro Heiskanen from Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:55 | DAL | Miro Heiskanen from Wyatt Johnston, Nils Lundkvist | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 13:52 |  OTT | Derick Brassard from Drake Batherson | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 18:47 | OTT | Thomas Chabot from Brady Tkachuk, Mathieu Joseph | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 1:27 | OTT | Travis Hamonic from Alex DeBrincat, Jake Sanderson | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 14:54 | DAL | Nils Lundkvist from Roope Hintz | 3–3 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 4:31 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from Wyatt Johnston | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot D | 28:27 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.01 | +0.85 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 12:17 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.10 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 19:25 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 18:45 | +0.07 | +0.28 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 10:08 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:01 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.20 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Austin Watson L | 11:24 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 19:31 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 10:41 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 15:21 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:33 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 12:38 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 24:08 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 15:57 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 23:35 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 13:15 | −0.36 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 21:31 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.12 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 20:56 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.14 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 64:31 | −0.13 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miro Heiskanen D | 28:32 | 2 | +1.45 | −0.10 | +1.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 18:02 | 1 | +1.15 | +0.63 | +0.46 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 16:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.15 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mason Marchment L | 16:10 | +0.24 | +0.24 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 15:44 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:33 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 20:16 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 21:24 | −0.05 | +0.21 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 12:06 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 15:21 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.29 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 19:08 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 15:21 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 19:26 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 15:51 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 10:58 | −0.23 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 10:39 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:33 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.10 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 17:11 | 2 | −0.59 | −0.19 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 64:31 | −0.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.