VAN beat SJS 6–5 in overtime. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 4:25 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Kaapo Kahkonen allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:18 | SJS | Nick Bonino from Matt Benning, Logan Couture | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:15 | VAN | Dakota Joshua from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ethan Bear | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 19:35 | VAN | Dakota JoshuaPP from Conor Garland, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 1:34 | VAN | Nils Hoglander from Bo Horvat | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 7:27 | SJS | Timo MeierPP from Alexander Barabanov, Tomas Hertl | 3–2 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 10:53 | SJS | Logan CoutureSH from Jaycob Megna | 3–3 | 31% → 52% |
| P2 19:28 | VAN | Ilya Mikheyev from Tyler Myers | 4–3 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 2:45 | SJS | Jonah Gadjovich unassisted | 4–4 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 11:28 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson | 4–5 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 16:07 | VAN | Andrei KuzmenkoPP from Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat | 5–5 | 11% → 49% |
| OT 4:25 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Andrei Kuzmenko, Quinn Hughes | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:54 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.11 | +1.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 11:00 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.22 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 16:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.04 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.09 | +0.53 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:50 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.19 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:41 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 13:10 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 14:17 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 19:01 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Stillman D | 17:36 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 20:32 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 18:17 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 11:54 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 16:14 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 17:12 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.43 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 19:03 | −0.22 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 26:07 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.25 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 19:20 | 2 | −0.52 | −0.03 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 64:19 | −0.72 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Labanc R | 12:14 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 8:52 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.07 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 21:43 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.18 | +0.39 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan Couture C | 20:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.15 | +0.75 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Nick Bonino C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.05 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 30:33 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 17:50 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 7:50 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 13:56 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:33 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 13:19 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 21:56 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| CJ Suess L | 5:50 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 14:39 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 20:48 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 21:15 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:59 | 2 | −0.45 | +0.40 | −1.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 18:36 | −0.47 | −0.05 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eetu Makiniemi G | 24:25 | −0.94 |
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 40:00 | −1.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.