CGY beat MIN 5–3. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rasmus Andersson scored at 15:57 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:27 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Mathew Dumba, Mats Zuccarello | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:25 | MIN | Mason Shaw from Connor Dewar, Jon Merrill | 2–0 | 62% → 75% |
| P2 0:16 | CGY | Nazem KadriPP from Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 1:37 | CGY | Blake Coleman from Adam Ruzicka, Mikael Backlund | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 3:11 | CGY | Tyler ToffoliPP from Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm | 2–3 | 54% → 72% |
| P3 15:45 | MIN | Jon Merrill from Mason Shaw, Connor Dewar | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| P3 15:57 | CGY | Rasmus Andersson from Blake Coleman, Adam Ruzicka | 3–4 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 18:50 | CGY | Tyler ToffoliEN from Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Huberdeau | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Merrill D | 13:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.04 | +0.90 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mason Shaw C | 10:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.07 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:29 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 15:39 | +0.23 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 21:04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:03 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 10:21 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Petan C | 10:53 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 15:02 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 12:09 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 18:59 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 17:18 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.09 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 19:33 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 20:24 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:56 | −0.33 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 10:04 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:20 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.57 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:36 | −0.75 | +0.01 | −0.57 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 57:57 | −1.44 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:12 | 1 | 2 | +1.07 | +0.11 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:15 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.06 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:57 | 2 | +0.60 | +0.20 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 15:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.09 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:18 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Ruzicka C | 13:59 | 2 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:01 | 3 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 21:07 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:37 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 5:16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 5:21 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 13:52 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 15:33 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.17 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 19:54 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 18:36 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:08 | −0.24 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 20:16 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 9:37 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 59:46 | +0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.