VAN beat MTL 7–6 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 3.2, VAN 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 0:13 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:49 |  MTL | Cole Caufield from Jordan Harris | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:34 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Kaiden Guhle | 2–0 | 63% → 78% |
| P1 14:57 | MTL | Sean Monahan from Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson | 3–0 | 79% → 91% |
| P1 16:17 | MTL | Michael Pezzetta from Jordan Harris, Jake Evans | 4–0 | 92% → 99% |
| P2 16:44 | VAN | Conor Garland from Andrei Kuzmenko | 4–1 | 1% → 3% |
| P2 18:28 | VAN | Ilya Mikheyev from Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser | 4–2 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 4:02 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Nils Hoglander, Riley Stillman | 4–3 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 5:45 | VAN | Ilya Mikheyev from Elias Pettersson, Riley Stillman | 4–4 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 8:49 | VAN | Jack Studnicka unassisted | 4–5 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 15:23 | MTL | Christian Dvorak from Evgenii Dadonov, Joel Armia | 5–5 | 11% → 49% |
| P3 17:00 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Arber Xhekaj, Mike Matheson | 6–5 | 49% → 91% |
| P3 18:35 | VAN | Andrei KuzmenkoPP from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 6–6 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 0:13 | VAN | Elias Pettersson unassisted | 6–7 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 18:46 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.13 | +0.88 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:12 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.14 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:59 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.03 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 10:15 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 16:56 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.10 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Evans C | 14:42 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 14:36 | +0.26 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 13:44 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 15:05 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 19:22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 18:44 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rem Pitlick C | 7:59 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 19:39 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 17:27 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:15 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 16:57 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 22:49 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:13 | −3.71 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:00 | 2 | +1.31 | −0.04 | +1.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 10:02 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.00 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 18:12 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.18 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:13 | 1 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.08 | +0.71 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 13:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Studnicka C | 9:41 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.06 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 19:33 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 19:41 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Stillman D | 16:27 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 13:34 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ethan Bear D | 19:59 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 24:42 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 18:47 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 14:17 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 14:50 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 10:17 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 18:57 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 16:45 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.07 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Delia G | 43:15 | −0.18 |
| Spencer Martin G | 16:17 | −3.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.