MIN beat DAL 6–5 in a shootout. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Roope Hintz scored on the power play at 17:49 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 9% to 50%. Jake Oettinger allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:04 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Mats Zuccarello, Calen Addison | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 6:58 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Jason Robertson | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:42 | MIN | Connor DewarSH from Mason Shaw | 2–1 | 46% → 68% |
| P2 13:17 | MIN | Jake Middleton from Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Reaves | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 13:32 | MIN | Jordan Greenway from Ryan Reaves | 4–1 | 86% → 96% |
| P3 0:29 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Marcus Foligno, Jared Spurgeon | 5–1 | 98% → 99% |
| P3 7:12 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Joe Pavelski, Mason Marchment | 5–2 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 7:50 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell | 5–3 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 9:55 | DAL | Mason Marchment from Joe Pavelski, Radek Faksa | 5–4 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 17:49 | DAL | Roope HintzPP from Joe Pavelski, Colin Miller | 5–5 | 9% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:06 | 1 | +1.44 | −0.01 | +0.64 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.77 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 17:28 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.07 | +0.87 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 17:07 | +0.87 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.99 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 10:30 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.07 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 14:24 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.02 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:58 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.13 | −0.26 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.65 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:12 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.38 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 23:13 | +0.16 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Petan C | 10:39 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:49 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:56 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mason Shaw C | 10:17 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 24:39 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 18:58 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 14:57 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 18:33 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 16:16 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 16:58 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 65:00 | −2.14 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roope Hintz C | 19:20 | 3 | 1 | +1.99 | +0.07 | +2.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.51 |
| Jason Robertson L | 21:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 |
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:59 | 3 | +0.64 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.77 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 17:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.09 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Esa Lindell D | 23:40 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 10:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 21:17 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 15:21 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 24:00 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 11:20 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 13:35 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 14:18 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:46 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 30:05 | −0.29 | +0.24 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 8:19 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 18:42 | −0.48 | +0.08 | −0.54 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 17:42 | −0.64 | −0.13 | −0.54 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 24:53 | −2.07 |
| Jake Oettinger G | 39:50 | −2.72 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.