CGY beat WSH 5–2. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Andrew Mangiapane scored at 1:35 of the second, moving CGY’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Charlie Lindgren allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:03 | CGY | Blake Coleman from Adam Ruzicka, Mikael Backlund | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:26 | WSH | Conor ShearyPP from Sonny Milano, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:35 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Mikael Backlund, Adam Ruzicka | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 13:39 | CGY | Adam Ruzicka from Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson | 1–3 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 14:34 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Dillon Dube, Nazem Kadri | 1–4 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 18:54 | WSH | John Carlson from Lars Eller, Dylan Strome | 2–4 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 19:56 | CGY | Elias LindholmEN from Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev | 2–5 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Dowd C | 9:37 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.04 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 13:20 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 13:33 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 21:38 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:01 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.34 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 16:18 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Lars Eller C | 17:43 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:55 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 9:39 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 21:58 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 9:48 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:25 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:55 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 17:00 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:02 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 20:39 | −0.45 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:45 | −0.46 | −0.15 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 17:45 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 36:09 | +0.13 |
| Charlie Lindgren G | 22:50 | −1.33 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:12 | 2 | +1.18 | +0.02 | +0.83 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Ruzicka C | 12:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.14 | +0.39 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Blake Coleman L | 16:06 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.10 | +0.38 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:49 | 3 | +0.38 | +0.20 | −0.30 | +0.47 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 20:05 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:34 | +0.14 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:19 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:39 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 15:10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:23 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:41 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 15:45 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 11:55 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 8:26 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 15:39 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 10:25 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:12 | −0.42 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 60:00 | +0.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.