MIN beat ANA 5–4 in a shootout. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kirill Kaprizov scored at 17:25 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 9% to 51%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:37 | MIN | Calen Addison from Marcus Foligno, Joel Eriksson Ek | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:13 | ANA | Ryan Strome from Frank Vatrano | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 15:04 | MIN | Connor Dewar from Ryan Reaves, Mason Shaw | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 10:43 | ANA | Cam FowlerPP from Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 19:00 | ANA | Trevor ZegrasPP from Troy Terry, Dmitry Kulikov | 3–2 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 5:26 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Calen Addison, Matt Boldy | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 10:36 | ANA | Troy TerryPP from Adam Henrique, Mason McTavish | 4–3 | 50% → 81% |
| P3 17:25 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon | 4–4 | 9% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras C | 20:59 | 1 | 1 | +1.39 | +0.03 | +0.67 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.65 |
| Mason McTavish C | 14:17 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.44 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.51 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 18:22 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 22:04 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.28 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 28:44 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.28 | +0.45 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 12:54 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavol Regenda L | 9:57 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 16:26 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:10 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 8:12 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 24:42 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 14:48 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 14:52 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 20:19 | −0.34 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 15:14 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:21 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.40 | +0.39 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.51 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 21:28 | −0.64 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 22:08 | 1 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 64:09 | −0.59 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:54 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.57 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.59 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 15:20 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | |
| Calen Addison D | 18:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +0.44 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor Dewar C | 8:22 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.02 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 17:17 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 25:19 | +0.29 | +0.51 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 24:00 | +0.25 | +0.51 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:31 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 22:22 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.53 | −0.16 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Mason Shaw C | 9:01 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 |
| Sam Steel C | 21:14 | −0.00 | +0.49 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 16:48 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nic Petan C | 10:50 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 14:28 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:25 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:06 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:49 | −0.89 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 65:00 | −0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.