MTL beat CGY 2–1. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored on the power play at 6:29 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 49% to 77%. Jake Allen saved 3.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:13 | MTL | Juraj Slafkovský from Sean Monahan, Kaiden Guhle | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 19:31 |  CGY | Elias Lindholm from Jonathan Huberdeau, Adam Ruzicka | 1–1 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 6:29 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Sean Monahan | 2–1 | 49% → 77% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 12:39 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.19 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 17:26 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.13 | +0.66 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 23:05 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:07 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:57 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 6:40 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 24:59 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 20:08 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:25 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:22 | −0.19 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 20:50 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 12:52 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 19:03 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 14:47 | −0.34 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 12:54 | −0.35 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 11:11 | −0.35 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:42 | −0.48 | −0.25 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 12:53 | −0.55 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | +3.82 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Lindholm C | 22:11 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.22 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:35 | +0.31 | +0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 15:29 | +0.28 | +0.37 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:49 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.37 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 18:42 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 19:48 | +0.12 | +0.23 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:57 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 16:34 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:24 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 7:50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 5:46 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 4:50 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:33 | −0.10 | +0.25 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 15:03 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.33 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:31 | −0.20 | +0.12 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 20:40 | −0.47 | +0.38 | −0.86 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:04 | −0.48 | +0.19 | −0.45 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:49 | −0.52 | +0.33 | −0.68 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 58:54 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.