CAR beat STL 6–4. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Martinook scored at 15:25 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 49% to 87%. Antti Raanta allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:00 |  STL | Pavel BuchnevichPP from Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 2:31 | STL | Noel Acciari from Nick Leddy, Colton Parayko | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 5:24 | CAR | Brent BurnsPP unassisted | 1–2 | 14% → 27% |
| P2 5:45 | CAR | Jordan Martinook unassisted | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 6:28 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Martin Necas | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 15:55 | STL | Torey KrugPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Vladimir Tarasenko | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 15:25 | CAR | Jordan Martinook from Jaccob Slavin | 4–3 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 18:02 | CAR | Jordan StaalEN unassisted | 5–3 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 19:18 | STL | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Jordan Kyrou | 5–4 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 19:51 | CAR | Jordan MartinookEN from Brent Burns | 6–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Martinook L | 18:25 | 3 | +1.69 | +0.23 | +1.50 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brent Burns D | 22:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.16 | +0.64 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Seth Jarvis R | 16:51 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 23:28 | +0.31 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 17:27 | +0.20 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 24:45 | +0.20 | +0.36 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 9:58 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:34 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.28 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 7:46 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 13:14 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 12:58 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 8:05 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 14:44 | −0.13 | +0.28 | −0.44 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:49 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 19:59 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 14:20 | −0.30 | +0.25 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 11:13 | −0.35 | +0.13 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 20:00 | −0.10 |
| Antti Raanta G | 39:56 | −1.62 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:41 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.04 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.23 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Noel Acciari C | 13:35 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.11 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Torey Krug D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.33 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 19:34 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Calle Rosen D | 11:02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 21:30 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 21:29 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 6:18 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 12:40 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 9:08 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 12:24 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 19:13 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:07 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 19:33 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:42 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 23:46 | −0.48 | −0.42 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:13 | −0.59 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 58:44 | −0.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.