NSH beat NJD 4–3 in overtime. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Johansen scored at 0:33 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Vitek Vanecek allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:11 | NSH | Ryan Johansen from Cole Smith, Mattias Ekholm | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 19:16 | NSH | Colton Sissons from Roman Josi | 2–0 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 1:57 | NJD | Kevin Bahl from Jack Hughes, Erik Haula | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 2:30 | NJD | Jesper BrattPP from Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 4:35 | NJD | Alexander HoltzPP from Damon Severson, Erik Haula | 2–3 | 54% → 72% |
| P3 19:50 | NSH | Mikael GranlundPP from Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen | 3–3 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 0:33 | NSH | Ryan Johansen from Matt Duchene | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Johansen C | 13:18 | 2 | 1 | +1.52 | +0.25 | +1.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Colton Sissons C | 18:26 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.22 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:19 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.10 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:14 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 12:08 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:24 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 13:10 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 18:00 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:02 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 23:11 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 10:09 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 16:38 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 13:41 | −0.22 | +0.18 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 18:53 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:19 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:07 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:04 | −0.38 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:24 | −0.53 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:52 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.18 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 11:49 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.20 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 15:07 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.08 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 16:32 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 10:42 | +0.16 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 19:03 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:39 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 12:38 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 18:43 | 2 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 11:39 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 14:30 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| John Marino D | 22:31 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:12 | −0.18 | +0.18 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 20:17 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 18:20 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:39 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 20:05 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:21 | −0.56 | −0.15 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 60:33 | −1.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.