COL beat BUF 6–4. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen scored on the power play at 9:49 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 48% to 68%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:48 | COL | J.T. CompherPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:19 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 19:49 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Jeff Skinner, Dylan Cozens | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 9:00 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen | 2–2 | 32% → 48% |
| P2 9:49 | COL | Artturi LehkonenPP from J.T. Compher, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–2 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 11:53 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Cale Makar, Devon Toews | 4–2 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 14:05 | BUF | Dylan CozensPP from Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner | 4–3 | 17% → 31% |
| P2 17:16 | COL | J.T. Compher from Logan O'Connor, Andrew Cogliano | 5–3 | 71% → 88% |
| P3 0:07 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson | 5–4 | 11% → 27% |
| P3 19:25 | COL | Mikko RantanenEN from J.T. Compher, Nathan MacKinnon | 6–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Compher L | 22:09 | 2 | 2 | +1.59 | +0.13 | +1.38 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:09 | 2 | 3 | +1.11 | +0.37 | +0.64 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 25:21 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.48 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 25:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.39 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jean-Luc Foudy C | 7:24 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 10:36 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 16:13 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 7:11 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 11:49 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 19:02 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 6:31 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 26:03 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 10:17 | −0.12 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Blidh L | 6:37 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 30:38 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.20 | −0.56 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 16:17 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.25 | −0.53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayson Megna C | 5:05 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 16:23 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | −1.35 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 15:32 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.15 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 21:38 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.33 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 21:29 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.53 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:11 | 1 | 2 | +0.53 | −0.45 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Victor Olofsson R | 12:37 | +0.30 | +0.24 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 13:37 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 10:12 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 12:55 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:31 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawrence Pilut D | 6:50 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 11:44 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:35 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.33 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 7:35 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:36 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 28:11 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 21:35 | −0.44 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 20:21 | −0.50 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 12:42 | −0.53 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:34 | −0.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.