BUF beat DET 5–4 in a shootout. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Oskar Sundqvist scored at 12:31 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 17% to 51%. Craig Anderson saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:20 | DET | Jonatan Berggren from Filip Hronek, Joe Veleno | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:53 | BUF | Dylan CozensSH from Craig Anderson | 1–1 | 30% → 46% |
| P1 8:25 | BUF | Mattias Samuelsson from Rasmus Dahlin | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 8:12 | BUF | Dylan Cozens from JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn | 3–1 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 10:17 | BUF | Jeff SkinnerPP from Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin | 4–1 | 85% → 95% |
| P3 6:51 | DET | David Perron from Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek | 4–2 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 10:41 | DET | Oskar Sundqvist from Andrew Copp, Jordan Oesterle | 4–3 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 12:31 | DET | Oskar Sundqvist from Andrew Copp | 4–4 | 17% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:56 | 2 | +1.39 | +0.16 | +1.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 11:14 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.99 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:02 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.19 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 24:29 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.08 | +0.89 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawrence Pilut D | 5:32 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 14:15 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 8:51 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 9:11 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 17:45 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 26:49 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 9:44 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:24 | 2 | −0.32 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 25:51 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 11:21 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:43 | −0.47 | +0.07 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 18:10 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 17:36 | −0.55 | −0.31 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 20:07 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.14 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.33 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 65:00 | +1.73 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 15:41 | 2 | +1.45 | +0.00 | +1.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 18:20 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.10 | +0.54 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 10:48 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 15:26 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 11:03 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 21:29 | +0.18 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 14:55 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 13:02 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:30 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.00 | |
| Jake Walman D | 15:27 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 24:09 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 18:25 | −0.13 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:34 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:35 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 15:09 | −0.27 | +0.12 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 25:51 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.10 | −0.51 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 21:05 | −0.67 | −0.14 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 21:55 | −0.89 | +0.09 | −0.68 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 65:00 | −0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.