CAR beat PIT 3–2 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brett Pesce scored at 2:20 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:34 |  PIT | Sidney Crosby from Jake Guentzel, Pierre-Olivier Joseph | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 5:45 |  CAR | Martin Necas from Brett Pesce, Sebastian Aho | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 17:38 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Sebastian Aho, Stefan Noesen | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 19:02 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Jeff Petry, Sidney Crosby | 2–2 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 2:20 | CAR | Brett Pesce from Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Pesce D | 24:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.23 | +0.34 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.15 | +0.36 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Derek Stepan C | 6:59 | +0.34 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 21:47 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:08 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:54 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 23:08 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 14:58 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:50 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.32 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 7:53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 12:39 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 23:36 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 18:28 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 6:13 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:48 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 12:39 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 13:56 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 18:32 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 62:20 | +0.51 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.16 | +0.58 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.11 | +0.34 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Jason Zucker L | 14:49 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 11:28 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 13:37 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:21 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 15:05 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 16:25 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 12:55 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 20:17 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:42 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 10:22 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:45 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 10:37 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 14:40 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 26:03 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 17:21 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:27 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 61:47 | +0.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.