DAL beat STL 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 2.5, STL 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Wyatt Johnston scored at 3:51 of the second, moving DAL’s win probability from 47% to 67%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:51 |  DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Jamie Benn | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 7:57 | DAL | Ty Dellandrea from Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn | 2–0 | 78% → 94% |
| P3 13:17 |  STL | Brandon Saad from Josh Leivo | 2–1 | 2% → 16% |
| P3 15:54 | DAL | Jason Robertson unassisted | 3–1 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 17:25 | DAL | Miro HeiskanenEN unassisted | 4–1 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:27 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.07 | +0.81 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 19:16 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.03 | +0.71 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 14:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.08 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joel Hanley D | 14:26 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 13:07 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 18:14 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 18:13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 14:23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 15:41 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 12:32 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 12:37 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 16:08 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 24:33 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:03 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 18:32 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 13:34 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:15 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 15:46 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 59:33 | +0.98 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Saad L | 17:39 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.02 | +0.51 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:28 | +0.26 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 19:54 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Rosen D | 13:31 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 16:40 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 11:44 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 8:14 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 14:59 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:24 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 11:45 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:26 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:46 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 23:34 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:11 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 17:13 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:38 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:22 | −0.43 | −0.05 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:53 | −0.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.