VAN beat SJS 4–3 in overtime. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Andrei Kuzmenko scored at 1:12 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Kaapo Kahkonen allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:26 | VAN | Kyle Burroughs from Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 16:12 | SJS | Luke Kunin from Nick Bonino, Matt Benning | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 7:05 | SJS | Logan CouturePP from Erik Karlsson, Alexander Barabanov | 1–2 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 8:14 | VAN | Ilya Mikheyev from Andrei Kuzmenko, Elias Pettersson | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 10:44 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ilya Mikheyev | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 14:45 | SJS | Luke Kunin from Erik Karlsson, Nick Bonino | 3–3 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 1:12 | VAN | Andrei Kuzmenko from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:28 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.25 | +0.61 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 18:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.21 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.16 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 19:26 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.12 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:01 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ethan Bear D | 17:22 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 18:46 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 23:13 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:17 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 18:34 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 17:03 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 19:29 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 13:55 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 15:25 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:40 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 15:15 | −0.20 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 12:59 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 12:42 | −0.38 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 61:12 | −0.60 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kunin C | 15:47 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.09 | +1.52 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 18:06 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.19 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Radim Simek D | 15:57 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 22:16 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:09 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 9:20 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 7:23 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 16:29 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Cicek D | 16:13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 19:38 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 6:41 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 19:35 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 17:09 | −0.15 | +0.21 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:05 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:21 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 16:38 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 15:57 | −0.51 | −0.02 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 61:10 | −1.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.