WPG beat DAL 5–4 in overtime. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Josh Morrissey scored at 0:34 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jake Oettinger allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:32 | WPG | Cole Perfetti from Blake Wheeler, Nate Schmidt | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 1:58 |  DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Jamie Benn, Ty Dellandrea | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 5:46 | WPG | Jansen Harkins from Adam Lowry, Brenden Dillon | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:27 | DAL | Jamie BennPP from Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen | 2–2 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 8:04 | WPG | Adam Lowry from Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Dylan DeMelo | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 11:21 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Sam Gagner | 4–2 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 17:48 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin | 4–3 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 19:40 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 0:34 | WPG | Josh Morrissey from Blake Wheeler, Adam Lowry | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jansen Harkins C | 14:20 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.06 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:28 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.11 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 17:25 | 1 | 2 | +0.47 | −0.07 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:03 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.01 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 18:44 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.17 | +0.47 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 10:26 | +0.27 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 19:52 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 18:07 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 16:49 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 15:19 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Saku Maenalanen R | 9:55 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:45 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 20:03 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 14:22 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| David Gustafsson C | 11:16 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 16:25 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 11:43 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:30 | +0.75 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 22:09 | 2 | 1 | +1.43 | +0.28 | +1.09 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 15:21 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.09 | +0.44 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 20:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| Roope Hintz C | 18:45 | +0.21 | +0.43 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 12:50 | +0.18 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 19:50 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 15:09 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.01 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 19:16 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 11:51 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 15:12 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 15:58 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:08 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.23 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 11:46 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:20 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 21:43 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.42 | −0.69 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 27:12 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.19 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 9:52 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 58:33 | −2.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.