COL beat NSH 4–3. COL also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon scored at 18:18 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:28 | COL | Devon Toews from Nathan MacKinnon, Evan Rodrigues | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:20 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Devon Toews, Mikko Rantanen | 2–0 | 62% → 75% |
| P1 5:42 |  NSH | Kiefer Sherwood unassisted | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P1 13:14 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Samuel Girard | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 2:32 | NSH | Luke Evangelista from Tommy Novak, Cal Foote | 3–2 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 7:08 | NSH | Kiefer SherwoodPP from Yakov Trenin, Colton Sissons | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 18:18 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Mikko Rantanen | 4–3 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:34 | 3 | 1 | +2.49 | +0.11 | +2.15 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Devon Toews D | 24:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.74 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Samuel Girard D | 25:23 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 11:53 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 6:02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 16:29 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 20:24 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 2:56 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 25:11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:02 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 10:47 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 17:39 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 12:23 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:07 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 5:16 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 18:22 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:38 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 21:46 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 59:56 | −1.59 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:06 | 2 | +1.68 | −0.01 | +1.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 15:33 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.07 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 19:36 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 10:14 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 23:58 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 5:30 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 18:36 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:12 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:52 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 16:27 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 17:39 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 15:44 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 13:24 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Livingstone D | 15:38 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 15:21 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Spencer Stastney D | 18:49 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 21:10 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 18:48 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 58:23 | −1.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.