VAN beat COL 4–3. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ethan Bear scored at 12:00 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 82%. Pavel Francouz allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:21 | VAN | Ilya Mikheyev from Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 11:27 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Devon Toews, Artturi Lehkonen | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 17:44 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from J.T. Compher, Artturi Lehkonen | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 10:34 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Ethan Bear, J.T. Miller | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 15:59 | COL | Cale MakarPP from Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher | 2–3 | 58% → 76% |
| P3 5:07 | VAN | Sheldon Dries from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brock Boeser | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 12:00 | VAN | Ethan Bear from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Sheldon Dries | 4–3 | 48% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:46 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.06 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ethan Bear D | 20:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.15 | +0.91 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sheldon Dries C | 10:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Bo Horvat C | 23:03 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.03 | +0.50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Conor Garland R | 9:53 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 11:59 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 20:28 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:10 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 15:43 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Aman C | 11:57 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:38 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 15:04 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:18 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:39 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 15:05 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 11:37 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:31 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 21:58 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.03 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 59:59 | +0.56 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:19 | 2 | +1.29 | +0.01 | +1.26 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob MacDonald D | 11:35 | +0.29 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 27:32 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.13 | +0.44 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 22:03 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jayson Megna C | 8:20 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 15:47 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 4:32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 23:56 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.23 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Oskar Olausson R | 7:02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 8:04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 18:05 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 26:54 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 15:27 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Kaut R | 11:03 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 14:16 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 15:01 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:19 | −0.34 | +0.20 | −0.54 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:55 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.15 | −0.64 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 58:47 | −1.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.