MIN beat WPG 6–1. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mason Shaw scored at 8:20 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 54% to 70%. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:20 | MIN | Mason Shaw from Mathew Dumba, Nic Petan | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 2:50 | MIN | Calen Addison from Jon Merrill, Matt Boldy | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 3:58 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Mathew Dumba, Joel Eriksson Ek | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 14:18 |  WPG | Kyle Connor from Josh Morrissey, Michael Eyssimont | 1–3 | 3% → 10% |
| P3 0:28 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello | 1–4 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 6:51 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Joel Eriksson Ek | 1–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 9:46 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Calen Addison | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 17:58 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.03 | +0.45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:41 | +0.22 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Heinola D | 13:18 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Saku Maenalanen R | 12:40 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:39 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 21:32 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 10:57 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 22:52 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 15:43 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 14:35 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:58 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 13:34 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 15:11 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:18 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 13:53 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 13:39 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 9:52 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:30 | −0.65 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.38 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | −2.90 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:47 | 2 | +1.49 | +0.05 | +1.43 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 18:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.14 | +0.87 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mason Shaw C | 11:27 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 16:34 | 1 | 2 | +0.80 | +0.08 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.11 | +0.28 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mathew Dumba D | 20:29 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 18:35 | +0.18 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 21:29 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:05 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 10:59 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 8:36 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 18:50 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 14:16 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 14:43 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Petan C | 11:29 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:40 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.13 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Sam Steel C | 16:05 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:20 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 59:54 | +1.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.