NSH beat ARI 4–3 in a shootout. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 5.3 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Bjugstad scored short-handed at 13:16 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 13% to 47%. Juuse Saros allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:04 | NSH | Mikael GranlundPP from Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 8:50 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Nick Bjugstad, Matias Maccelli | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 15:56 | ARI | Nick Bjugstad from Nick Ritchie, J.J. Moser | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 1:03 | NSH | Roman JosiPP from Ryan Johansen, Mikael Granlund | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 1:31 | NSH | Matt Duchene from Colton Sissons | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 13:16 | ARI | Nick BjugstadSH unassisted | 3–3 | 13% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bjugstad C | 14:56 | 2 | 1 | +2.14 | −0.12 | +1.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.77 |
| Nick Ritchie L | 10:45 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.99 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:57 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.07 | +0.83 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:26 | +0.26 | −0.39 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 16:51 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 19:23 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 24:13 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 8:27 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 15:56 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 14:40 | −0.16 | +0.20 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 15:22 | −0.28 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 18:12 | −0.31 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 11:26 | −0.38 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 23:04 | −0.56 | −0.34 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 17:28 | −0.79 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.51 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 23:38 | −0.81 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:44 | 1 | −0.91 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.51 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:17 | −1.18 | −0.03 | −0.67 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.33 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 65:00 | +0.02 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 20:20 | 1 | +1.82 | +0.34 | +0.66 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.77 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 16:30 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.54 | −0.59 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.99 | |
| Cody Glass C | 12:47 | +0.89 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.99 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 25:19 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.47 | −0.64 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | |
| Roman Josi D | 30:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.54 | +0.38 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:43 | +0.23 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 12:29 | +0.23 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 24:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.28 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.33 |
| Cole Smith L | 10:58 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:52 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 13:39 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:20 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 10:19 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:23 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.30 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 12:44 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:11 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 18:24 | −1.14 | −0.19 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 65:00 | −1.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.