NYI beat TOR 3–2 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Anthony Beauvillier scored at 1:56 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ilya Sorokin saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:21 | NYI | Noah Dobson from Sebastian Aho, Mathew Barzal | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:49 | TOR | John TavaresPP from William Nylander, Mitch Marner | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 14:06 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Timothy Liljegren, Rasmus Sandin | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 17:02 | NYI | Josh Bailey unassisted | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 1:56 | NYI | Anthony Beauvillier from Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bailey R | 15:03 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.10 | +0.43 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.09 | +0.31 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 17:14 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 18:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.13 | +0.43 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:50 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 12:30 | +0.04 | +0.18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:54 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:52 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:19 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 14:43 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:45 | −0.13 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:27 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:53 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:37 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:02 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:26 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 14:30 | −0.35 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 14:52 | −0.48 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 61:56 | +1.02 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 22:46 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.18 | +0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 21:06 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 16:01 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.08 | +0.25 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Nylander R | 22:37 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.13 | −0.12 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 17:06 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 16:38 | +0.04 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 11:27 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 9:30 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 16:09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 11:56 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:25 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 16:30 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 18:12 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 23:07 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 11:19 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 22:40 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:17 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 19:18 | −0.31 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Erik Kallgren G | 61:40 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.