CGY beat PHI 5–2. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Joel Farabee scored at 8:03 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 6% to 22%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:43 | CGY | Jonathan Huberdeau from Blake Coleman | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:51 | CGY | Dillon Dube from Blake Coleman, MacKenzie Weegar | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 14:33 | PHI | Tanner Laczynski from Kevin Hayes, Noah Cates | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P2 3:29 | CGY | Rasmus Andersson from Noah Hanifin, Andrew Mangiapane | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P3 8:03 | PHI | Joel Farabee unassisted | 3–2 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 18:09 | CGY | Blake ColemanEN unassisted | 4–2 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 19:23 | CGY | Trevor LewisEN from Chris Tanev, Milan Lucic | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Dube C | 14:03 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.06 | +0.66 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 22:39 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.16 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:00 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Ruzicka C | 11:38 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:46 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 19:15 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Gilbert D | 13:59 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:56 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 13:56 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:52 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 14:25 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 13:18 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:52 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 16:11 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:30 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 19:59 | −0.22 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:32 | 1 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Trevor Lewis C | 14:13 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:56 | +0.63 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee L | 17:54 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.04 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Laczynski C | 13:31 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.05 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Lukas Sedlak C | 9:22 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:42 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kieffer Bellows L | 7:53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:25 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Willman C | 8:10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 15:34 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 15:20 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 20:44 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Brown C | 13:01 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 21:14 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 23:01 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 23:59 | −0.18 | +0.19 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 16:08 | −0.28 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 18:15 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 18:38 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 19:23 | −0.40 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 57:46 | −0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.