CGY beat FLA 5–4 in a shootout. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matthew Tkachuk scored at 13:46 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 15% to 51%. Spencer Knight allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:13 | CGY | Adam RuzickaPP from Noah Hanifin, Nikita Zadorov | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 0:50 | CGY | Nikita Zadorov from Adam Ruzicka, Elias Lindholm | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 3:30 | FLA | Colin White unassisted | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 10:56 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 12:58 | CGY | Adam Ruzicka from Elias Lindholm | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 1:12 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Sam Bennett, Gustav Forsling | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 6:56 | CGY | Blake Coleman from Mikael Backlund | 4–3 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 13:46 | FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Sam Bennett, Brandon Montour | 4–4 | 15% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ruzicka C | 16:28 | 2 | 1 | +1.27 | +0.15 | +1.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:00 | +1.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 26:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.09 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:56 | +0.84 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.77 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:22 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 18:21 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 11:29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 20:19 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 12:20 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 8:54 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:45 | −0.09 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.33 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 22:09 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.36 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 10:10 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 24:35 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:05 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 16:25 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 5:06 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 22:58 | 1 | −0.82 | +0.10 | −0.64 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 65:00 | −0.20 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 16:48 | +0.57 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 | ||
| Colin White C | 14:16 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.17 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 21:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.02 | +0.77 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:27 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.06 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.51 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 15:43 | +0.24 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 6:56 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 13:04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 7:44 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:03 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 25:52 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Staal C | 9:48 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 18:03 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 23:42 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:59 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 28:26 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.29 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 23:24 | 1 | −0.94 | −0.06 | −0.75 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.21 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:38 | −1.16 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 64:38 | −1.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.