WPG beat ANA 3–2. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kyle Connor scored at 19:06 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 50% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:17 |  ANA | Troy TerryPP from Cam Fowler, Sam Carrick | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 12:32 |  WPG | Kyle ConnorPP from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Josh Morrissey | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 14:15 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Sam Gagner, Mark Scheifele | 1–2 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 14:43 | ANA | Trevor Zegras from Adam Henrique, Cam Fowler | 2–2 | 12% → 49% |
| P3 19:06 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk | 2–3 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras C | 20:20 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.06 | +0.58 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Troy Terry R | 18:58 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.05 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton White D | 13:37 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Strand D | 14:11 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 9:54 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 8:06 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 12:01 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 14:12 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Jones L | 12:51 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 19:53 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:23 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavol Regenda L | 15:22 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 14:44 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:05 | −0.38 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 22:50 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 19:57 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.12 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Klingberg D | 23:15 | −0.50 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:35 | −0.52 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 58:49 | +0.78 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 22:27 | 3 | +2.31 | +0.48 | +1.85 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 23:12 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.48 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 28:32 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.28 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 19:39 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.45 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:54 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.07 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 15:52 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:10 | +0.10 | +0.21 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 12:20 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 25:01 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 13:30 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 13:27 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 7:20 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 6:06 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Saku Maenalanen R | 13:17 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 15:31 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 8:26 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 17:10 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:06 | −0.34 | +0.05 | −0.39 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +0.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.