VAN beat BUF 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (VAN 3.2, BUF 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dakota Joshua scored at 8:01 of the first, moving VAN’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Craig Anderson allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:01 | VAN | Dakota Joshua from Nils Aman, William Lockwood | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:18 | VAN | Ethan Bear from Bo Horvat, Conor Garland | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P1 11:15 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P2 0:31 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 3–1 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 3:43 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch | 3–2 | 18% → 34% |
| P2 7:13 | VAN | J.T. MillerPP from Bo Horvat | 4–2 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 8:25 | VAN | Bo HorvatPP from Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson | 5–2 | 84% → 95% |
| P2 11:12 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Owen Power, Tage Thompson | 5–3 | 5% → 15% |
| P3 12:02 | BUF | Casey Mittelstadt from Dylan Cozens, Peyton Krebs | 5–4 | 4% → 18% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller C | 25:05 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.18 | +0.52 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Ethan Bear D | 18:41 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.12 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.78 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:21 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.01 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Lockwood R | 10:18 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:40 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 18:33 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 18:45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 20:06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 21:42 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 11:06 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 15:45 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Sheldon Dries C | 7:33 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 6:45 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 19:46 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 13:09 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:14 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 22:42 | 1 | 2 | −0.43 | +0.22 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 60:00 | −0.94 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:29 | 2 | +1.73 | +0.10 | +1.41 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 16:11 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.03 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 21:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.53 | +0.04 | +0.48 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 16:09 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 7:31 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Owen Power D | 26:49 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Asplund C | 8:18 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 12:04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 18:14 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 13:01 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawrence Pilut D | 14:49 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 15:44 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:20 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 9:05 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 16:33 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 28:39 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 21:37 | 2 | −0.92 | −0.04 | −0.83 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 57:56 | −1.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.