CBJ beat PHI 5–4 in overtime. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vladislav Gavrikov scored at 3:14 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Carter Hart allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:36 | CBJ | Sean Kuraly from Vladislav Gavrikov, Eric Robinson | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 5:36 | CBJ | Boone JennerPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Kent Johnson | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 8:54 |  PHI | Kevin Hayes from Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 12:16 | PHI | Noah Cates from Zack MacEwen, Owen Tippett | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 3:22 | CBJ | Boone Jenner unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 3:35 | CBJ | Eric Robinson from Mathieu Olivier, Marcus Bjork | 2–4 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 4:58 | PHI | Nick Seeler from Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee | 3–4 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 9:14 | PHI | Travis KonecnyPP from Noah Cates, Kevin Hayes | 4–4 | 19% → 48% |
| OT 3:14 | CBJ | Vladislav Gavrikov from Egor Chinakhov, Cole Sillinger | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Seeler D | 13:11 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.05 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 20:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.08 | +0.88 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Travis Konecny R | 19:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.03 | +0.46 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Noah Cates L | 19:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.14 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Lukas Sedlak C | 9:43 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 13:46 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Justin Braun D | 14:44 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:55 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 16:52 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 20:41 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kieffer Bellows L | 9:23 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Willman C | 12:35 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 31:00 | −0.21 | −0.27 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 19:19 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 17:08 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 15:27 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:13 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 19:16 | 1 | −0.83 | −0.17 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 63:14 | −1.52 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boone Jenner C | 18:16 | 2 | +1.23 | −0.02 | +1.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 28:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.29 | +0.66 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Eric Robinson L | 14:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.21 | +0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Sean Kuraly C | 16:20 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.20 | +0.49 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Marcus Bjork D | 20:29 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.37 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:57 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 9:45 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 8:55 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 20:08 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Foudy C | 9:38 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:17 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 18:56 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 15:54 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 18:16 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 18:02 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 8:55 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 27:06 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 30:58 | −0.36 |
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 32:16 | −0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.