STL beat SJS 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 3.2, STL 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Calle Rosen scored at 8:20 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 82%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:30 | STL | Torey Krug from Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 16:19 | SJS | Timo Meier from Kevin Labanc, Erik Karlsson | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 6:59 | STL | Jordan KyrouPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 13:05 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Kevin Labanc, Mario Ferraro | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 18:08 | STL | Brandon Saad from Josh Leivo, Calle Rosen | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 1:26 | SJS | Logan Couture from Erik Karlsson | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 8:20 | STL | Calle Rosen from Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko | 3–4 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 19:41 | STL | Noel AcciariEN from Pavel Buchnevich | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:55 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.24 | +0.61 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Logan Couture C | 16:28 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.04 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 19:36 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.16 | +0.53 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 10:04 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 13:08 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 12:35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 15:13 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 19:12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 22:33 | −0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 17:47 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.21 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:03 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.15 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 14:18 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 10:37 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 15:06 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 14:58 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 14:00 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:48 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 16:03 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 58:11 | −0.93 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calle Rosen D | 12:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.07 | +0.88 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Torey Krug D | 19:19 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.12 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:26 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.09 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 17:03 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.24 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 9:56 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 12:28 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 14:54 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:33 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:22 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 15:53 | −0.12 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 17:07 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 24:28 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.16 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:16 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 9:31 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 19:48 | 2 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.41 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Josh Leivo L | 13:56 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 23:54 | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 21:30 | −0.40 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | −0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.