MIN beat ANA 4–1. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mathew Dumba scored at 1:41 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 74%. Filip Gustavsson saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 13:24 |  ANA | Pavol Regenda from Frank Vatrano, Dmitry Kulikov | 0–1 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 16:37 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Matt Boldy, Calen Addison | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 1:41 | MIN | Mathew Dumba from Connor Dewar, Mason Shaw | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 3:23 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek | 3–1 | 81% → 92% |
| P3 11:42 | MIN | Joseph Cramarossa from Tyson Jost | 4–1 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:44 | 2 | +0.96 | +0.14 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joseph Cramarossa C | 8:29 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.04 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:24 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.10 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:12 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Shaw C | 10:52 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 18:26 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.21 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 14:02 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 9:35 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 16:35 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 22:14 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.14 | −0.25 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Beckman L | 12:39 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 19:37 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.18 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:07 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 10:15 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 10:17 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:07 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.07 | −0.72 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 15:11 | −0.44 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | +1.86 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavol Regenda L | 8:56 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxime Comtois L | 16:55 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 14:40 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Glenn Gawdin C | 11:34 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 7:08 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:29 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 6:23 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 16:49 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Max Jones L | 8:16 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 17:55 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:07 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 6:21 | −0.24 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 27:02 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 18:19 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 29:26 | −0.41 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:56 | −0.53 | −0.03 | −0.68 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 18:48 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.17 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 22:42 | −0.62 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 60:00 | +0.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.