VGK beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Reilly Smith scored at 0:23 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Erik Kallgren allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:45 |  VGK | Nicolas Roy from William Carrier | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:05 | TOR | Timothy Liljegren from David Kampf, Zachary Aston-Reese | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 17:55 | VGK | Jack Eichel from Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 13:50 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Auston Matthews, Rasmus Sandin | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 16:56 | TOR | Timothy Liljegren from Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 11:43 | VGK | Reilly SmithSH from William Karlsson, Brayden McNabb | 3–3 | 15% → 47% |
| OT 0:23 | VGK | Reilly Smith from Shea Theodore, William Karlsson | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reilly Smith R | 15:37 | 2 | +1.28 | +0.08 | +1.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 18:17 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.75 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:26 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.13 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 21:57 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.26 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:20 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:43 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 14:51 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 18:42 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 21:17 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:20 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Stone R | 19:55 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 10:39 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 11:37 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 17:44 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 17:49 | −0.25 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 7:57 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 17:50 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.04 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| William Carrier L | 12:08 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 60:23 | −0.04 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Liljegren D | 18:42 | 2 | +1.75 | +0.02 | +1.71 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 22:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.12 | +0.52 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 14:48 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 16:54 | +0.14 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 20:59 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 9:20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 15:08 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:34 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 10:53 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 22:20 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 16:24 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 10:41 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 12:29 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:53 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 13:36 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:13 | −0.30 | +0.17 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 23:13 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.13 | −0.49 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 19:02 | −0.38 | +0.11 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Erik Kallgren G | 60:23 | −1.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.