PHI beat STL 5–1. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Wade Allison scored at 10:11 of the second, moving PHI’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Felix Sandstrom saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:11 | PHI | Wade Allison from Ivan Provorov, Joel Farabee | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 16:37 | PHI | Travis Konecny from Owen Tippett, Kevin Hayes | 0–2 | 76% → 91% |
| P2 19:57 | PHI | Noah Cates from Travis Sanheim, Scott Laughton | 0–3 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 5:22 | STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Ivan Barbashev, Nick Leddy | 1–3 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 6:44 | PHI | Lukas Sedlak from Nick Seeler, Noah Cates | 1–4 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 19:21 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Travis Konecny | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:38 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 16:01 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.14 | +0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 19:30 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 19:15 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 21:03 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 25:08 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 5:55 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 26:34 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 20:57 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 11:42 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 9:08 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:12 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 14:51 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 8:28 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 9:52 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:29 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:57 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.27 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:20 | −0.36 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 60:00 | −1.29 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Konecny R | 16:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.05 | +0.39 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Owen Tippett R | 13:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.09 | +0.43 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nick Seeler D | 15:27 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 16:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.37 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 16:16 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Sedlak C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.06 | +0.35 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Wade Allison R | 16:23 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.03 | +0.30 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 21:37 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:24 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:12 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 10:01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 19:35 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Laczynski C | 10:50 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 16:51 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:49 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 19:09 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 22:42 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 12:55 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Sandstrom G | 60:00 | +1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.