NYI beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Noah Dobson scored on the power play at 4:02 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:16 |  CGY | Mikael Backlund from Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor Mackey | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 12:26 |  NYI | Sebastian Aho from Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 16:21 | CGY | Elias Lindholm from Noah Hanifin, Tyler Toffoli | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 14:06 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Nikita Zadorov | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 10:08 | NYI | Anders Lee from Brock Nelson, Mathew Barzal | 3–2 | 4% → 20% |
| P3 11:07 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri unassisted | 3–3 | 19% → 52% |
| OT 4:02 | NYI | Noah DobsonPP from Mathew Barzal, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:11 | 2 | +1.41 | −0.01 | +1.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 16:40 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.35 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:14 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.34 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 10:09 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:25 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 27:49 | −0.01 | +0.48 | −0.31 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 26:43 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 9:30 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:47 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 14:01 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 15:39 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 13:12 | −0.20 | +0.11 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 15:23 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 16:46 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 25:02 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 13:38 | −0.27 | +0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:16 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:42 | −0.41 | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 64:01 | −1.40 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 18:53 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.33 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 23:43 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 15:09 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.04 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 19:37 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.46 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 19:50 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 23:57 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 11:01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 3:32 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:24 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:00 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:13 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 16:15 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 14:00 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:55 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 16:50 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:13 | −0.29 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 24:01 | 3 | −0.31 | +0.29 | −0.60 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 21:20 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.03 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 64:02 | +0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.