NJD beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Fabian Zetterlund scored on the power play at 2:38 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:29 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Trevor Lewis | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:27 | NJD | Nathan Bastian from Jack Hughes, Miles Wood | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 7:50 | NJD | Fabian Zetterlund from Tomas Tatar, Nico Hischier | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:38 | NJD | Miles Wood from Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian | 3–1 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 4:48 | CGY | Elias Lindholm from Noah Hanifin, Tyler Toffoli | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P3 3:12 | CGY | Nikita Zadorov from Blake Coleman, Rasmus Andersson | 3–3 | 26% → 52% |
| OT 2:38 | NJD | Fabian ZetterlundPP from Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 13:41 | 2 | +1.62 | +0.13 | +1.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 15:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.03 | +0.72 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Miles Wood L | 14:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.05 | +0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 26:31 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.29 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 12:26 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 11:01 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.10 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 14:56 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 11:48 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 21:14 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 11:31 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 9:40 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 25:24 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 22:48 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 14:53 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 22:09 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.32 | −0.74 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Erik Haula L | 14:46 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 21:18 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:34 | −0.37 | +0.12 | −0.51 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 62:14 | −0.15 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Zadorov D | 28:24 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 29:43 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:17 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.06 | +0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:06 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:48 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:57 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Stone D | 0:25 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:00 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 11:32 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 6:20 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:35 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 12:55 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 16:52 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Connor Mackey D | 10:40 | −0.31 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.31 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 28:41 | −0.37 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 6:48 | −0.45 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 24:42 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.22 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 62:38 | −0.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.