NJD beat EDM 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 4.1, EDM 4.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jesper Bratt scored at 16:52 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 49% to 90%. Vitek Vanecek saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:20 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Zach Hyman, Darnell Nurse | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:22 | NJD | Miles Wood from Nathan Bastian, Michael McLeod | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 8:00 | EDM | Derek Ryan from Tyson Barrie, Dylan Holloway | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 9:26 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie | 1–3 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 1:14 | NJD | Miles Wood from Erik Haula | 2–3 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 16:45 | NJD | Ryan Graves from Tomas Tatar, Miles Wood | 3–3 | 9% → 49% |
| P3 16:52 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from John Marino, Nico Hischier | 4–3 | 49% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Wood L | 16:06 | 2 | 1 | +1.35 | +0.08 | +1.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Graves D | 22:26 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.02 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:12 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.06 | +0.69 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 9:49 | +0.17 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 12:49 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 20:18 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 8:41 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 24:01 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:12 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 9:17 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 12:45 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 21:47 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 16:15 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 17:54 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:16 | −0.32 | +0.10 | −0.44 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 19:15 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 15:43 | −0.37 | +0.14 | −0.47 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:08 | −0.66 | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 31:19 | +1.29 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 28:41 | +0.21 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 23:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.06 | +0.53 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:13 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.52 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 6:12 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 4:35 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 20:55 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:53 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Shore C | 6:04 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 11:11 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 10:33 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 21:26 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:00 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 11:36 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Markus Niemelainen D | 13:20 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:36 | −0.41 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 17:48 | −0.45 | −0.09 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 22:05 | −0.45 | −0.07 | −0.53 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 17:28 | 2 | −0.50 | −0.12 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 21:44 | 1 | −1.05 | +0.00 | −1.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 58:22 | +0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.