CAR beat WSH 3–2 in a shootout. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Andrei Svechnikov scored at 15:42 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 30% to 53%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:27 | CAR | Stefan NoesenPP from Brent Burns, Martin Necas | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 1:23 |  WSH | Dylan Strome from Nick Jensen, Conor Sheary | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:57 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Erik Gustafsson, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 15:42 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Paul Stastny, Martin Necas | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome C | 18:04 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.14 | +0.37 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.51 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 16:28 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.30 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.65 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:56 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.58 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:23 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 18:55 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 21:02 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Irwin D | 10:59 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 6:53 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 26:02 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:30 | −0.27 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 23:35 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 11:37 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:36 | −0.39 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:13 | −0.40 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:40 | −0.45 | −0.30 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 26:18 | −0.48 | −0.47 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:07 | −0.69 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 20:08 | −0.70 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 64:44 | +0.59 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 21:47 | 1 | +2.19 | +0.44 | +0.73 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.77 | |
| Brent Burns D | 24:18 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.28 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:26 | +0.29 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:13 | +0.21 | +0.25 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 11:04 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 19:34 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.52 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.17 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 16:48 | +0.14 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:52 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:59 | +0.07 | +0.28 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 12:33 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 10:32 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 22:07 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 13:11 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 23:14 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 13:25 | −0.04 | +0.22 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 14:14 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 15:14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:39 | −0.17 | +0.27 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 64:54 | +0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.