EDM beat CGY 3–2. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Zach Hyman scored at 12:24 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 49% to 83%. Stuart Skinner saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:29 |  CGY | Mikael BacklundSH from Elias Lindholm | 0–1 | 52% → 72% |
| P2 5:02 | EDM | Zach HymanPP from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 16:06 | CGY | Brett Ritchie from Trevor Lewis, Milan Lucic | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 9:02 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Cody Ceci, Dylan Holloway | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 12:24 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Connor McDavid | 3–2 | 49% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman L | 17:35 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.02 | +1.43 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 19:00 | 1 | 2 | +1.10 | −0.05 | +0.92 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Brett Kulak D | 17:56 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 19:02 | +0.17 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 21:44 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 15:31 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 17:13 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Niemelainen D | 15:25 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:59 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 5:29 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Shore C | 8:10 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 20:24 | −0.18 | −0.26 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:58 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 12:21 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:45 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 9:55 | −0.32 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 12:25 | −0.37 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:11 | −0.54 | +0.08 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 59:57 | +1.26 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:30 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.14 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:41 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.22 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:04 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:14 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 21:01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 13:32 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:55 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 14:34 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:42 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 16:33 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 19:36 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 11:43 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 8:49 | −0.29 | +0.09 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 15:02 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:18 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:28 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:02 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.06 | −0.56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 15:48 | −0.52 | −0.21 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 58:40 | −0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.