NYR beat DAL 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 3.1, DAL 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Zac Jones scored at 11:18 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 81%. Scott Wedgewood allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:09 |  DAL | Mason Marchment from Tyler Seguin | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:41 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Kaapo Kakko, Braden Schneider | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 0:59 | NYR | Vincent TrocheckPP from Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 1:28 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 14:18 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P2 18:46 | DAL | Jason Robertson unassisted | 3–3 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 11:18 | NYR | Zac Jones from Vincent Trocheck, Julien Gauthier | 4–3 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 11:37 | NYR | Julien Gauthier from Sammy Blais, Zac Jones | 5–3 | 82% → 97% |
| P3 13:25 | NYR | Vincent TrocheckPP from Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafrenière | 6–3 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:40 | 2 | 1 | +1.52 | −0.06 | +1.54 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Julien Gauthier R | 10:45 | 1 | 1 | +1.01 | −0.05 | +0.89 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Zac Jones D | 15:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.89 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:27 | 1 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.05 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Chris Kreider L | 19:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.07 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:53 | +0.20 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 23:43 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:09 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 16:04 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 14:51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:15 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vitali Kravtsov R | 5:09 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 15:19 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 10:44 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:06 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 9:46 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 18:38 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 13:13 | −0.38 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 59:16 | +0.52 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment L | 14:23 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.25 | +0.80 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 18:09 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.17 | +0.47 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 18:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.09 | +0.36 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Luke Glendening C | 12:45 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:41 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 15:29 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 17:56 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 12:25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 21:18 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 28:06 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:53 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 20:06 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 13:48 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:49 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.13 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 12:09 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 14:32 | −0.43 | +0.06 | −0.29 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 12:14 | −0.44 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:31 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.11 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 26:23 | −1.07 |
| Scott Wedgewood G | 33:37 | −2.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.