WPG beat LAK 6–4. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby scored at 14:23 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 49% to 86%. Jonathan Quick allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:03 | WPG | Mark Scheifele unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:47 |  LAK | Arthur KaliyevPP from Trevor Moore, Sean Durzi | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 10:53 | LAK | Blake Lizotte from Carl Grundstrom, Brendan Lemieux | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:33 | LAK | Gabriel Vilardi from Kevin Fiala | 1–3 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 18:03 | WPG | Adam LowrySH from David Gustafsson, Dylan DeMelo | 2–3 | 15% → 28% |
| P2 16:04 | WPG | Pierre-Luc DuboisPP from Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 18:55 | WPG | Nate Schmidt from Adam Lowry, Morgan Barron | 4–3 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 4:45 | LAK | Trevor Moore from Phillip Danault | 4–4 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 14:23 | WPG | Axel Jonsson-Fjallby from Brenden Dillon | 5–4 | 49% → 86% |
| P3 19:19 | WPG | Blake WheelerEN from Morgan Barron, Josh Morrissey | 6–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:51 | 1 | +0.95 | −0.18 | +0.78 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.38 | −0.04 | |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 8:42 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.01 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:17 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.10 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 15:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.14 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 16:24 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.24 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Saku Maenalanen R | 8:45 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 10:12 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 10:46 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:43 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 15:31 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:34 | −0.20 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:57 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 13:11 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 13:09 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 17:26 | −0.33 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 17:58 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 20:23 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.07 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 24:46 | −0.68 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 59:08 | +0.64 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Moore L | 18:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.13 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 13:57 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.02 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 27:47 | +0.58 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 11:59 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.03 | +0.72 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 14:38 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.14 | +0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:06 | +0.35 | +0.41 | −0.18 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 15:38 | +0.26 | +0.31 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 20:47 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 16:18 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 17:26 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan C | 10:57 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:17 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Edler D | 14:01 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 15:56 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Lemieux L | 10:24 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 19:17 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 15:49 | −0.32 | +0.29 | −0.79 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 17:53 | −0.71 | +0.40 | −0.91 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 59:37 | −2.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.