EDM beat CHI 6–5. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl scored at 19:22 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Alex Stalock allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:29 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Connor McDavid, Evander Kane | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 13:20 | CHI | Andreas Athanasiou from Max Domi | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 15:38 | CHI | Reese Johnson from Caleb Jones, Colin Blackwell | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:18 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Evan Bouchard, Brett Kulak | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 1:33 | CHI | Jonathan ToewsPP from Max Domi, Patrick Kane | 2–3 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 8:28 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 16:46 | CHI | Max DomiPP from Taylor Raddysh, Patrick Kane | 3–4 | 58% → 77% |
| P3 0:24 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie | 4–4 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 10:16 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 5–4 | 50% → 80% |
| P3 16:49 | CHI | Patrick Kane from Jake McCabe, Caleb Jones | 5–5 | 10% → 51% |
| P3 19:22 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Evander Kane, Kailer Yamamoto | 6–5 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 21:07 | 3 | 1 | +2.87 | −0.04 | +2.36 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.38 | +0.02 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:07 | 1 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.07 | +0.59 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.61 | −0.10 | +0.51 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Zach Hyman L | 18:36 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.22 | +0.50 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 16:13 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:04 | +0.16 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 11:23 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 22:47 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 8:53 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 2:56 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 8:20 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:31 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 17:10 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 24:44 | −0.17 | +0.16 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 18:53 | 2 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Markus Niemelainen D | 10:52 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 8:07 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | −0.01 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 17:00 | 2 | −0.73 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.58 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 60:00 | −1.14 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi C | 19:54 | 1 | 2 | +1.18 | +0.04 | +0.83 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 |
| Reese Johnson C | 5:55 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.06 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 22:26 | 1 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.06 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor Murphy D | 19:31 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 14:25 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.60 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 19:05 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.11 | +0.55 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 11:27 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 13:11 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.01 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 15:06 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 12:54 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 12:16 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 12:28 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 11:25 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 15:00 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 16:09 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 21:23 | 2 | −0.38 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 16:58 | −0.63 | +0.00 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 26:05 | −0.95 | −0.19 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Stalock G | 59:46 | −2.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.