PHI beat FLA 4–3. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 5.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Zack MacEwen scored at 10:17 of the second, moving PHI’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:41 | FLA | Gustav Forsling from Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:41 |  PHI | Tony DeAngelo from Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 7:58 | FLA | Joshua Mahura from Radko Gudas, Colin White | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:28 | PHI | Scott LaughtonPP from Travis Konecny, Kevin Hayes | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 10:17 | PHI | Zack MacEwen from Nick Seeler, Nicolas Deslauriers | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 11:29 | PHI | Joel Farabee from Kevin Hayes, Owen Tippett | 2–4 | 74% → 89% |
| P3 0:36 | FLA | Brandon MontourPP from Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk | 3–4 | 8% → 23% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour D | 27:20 | 1 | +1.36 | +0.85 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 15:16 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.02 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 21:51 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.06 | +0.76 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 24:17 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.86 | −0.64 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 24:27 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.84 | −0.61 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:52 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.73 | −0.41 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 15:42 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 19:38 | +0.16 | +0.85 | −0.66 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Kiersted D | 12:49 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 14:37 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 9:14 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 10:37 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 8:54 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 18:44 | −0.06 | +0.50 | −0.51 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:37 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colin White C | 11:19 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 18:54 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 11:46 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 57:46 | −2.33 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack MacEwen C | 13:31 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.05 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 18:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.45 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Scott Laughton C | 23:24 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.41 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 11:36 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:17 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.55 | +0.82 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Wade Allison R | 5:09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 19:55 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Egor Zamula D | 6:41 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 18:28 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:13 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 18:24 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 14:06 | −0.26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Sedlak C | 12:24 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 7:43 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 20:58 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 18:49 | −0.45 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:10 | −0.60 | −0.59 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 22:14 | 2 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 60:00 | +1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.