COL beat NYR 3–2 in a shootout. COL lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Fox scored at 14:03 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 15% to 51%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:40 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 18:06 | NYR | Barclay Goodrow from Jacob Trouba, Sammy Blais | 1–1 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 0:59 | COL | Logan O'ConnorSH from Andrew Cogliano | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 14:03 | NYR | Adam Fox from Jimmy Vesey, Barclay Goodrow | 2–2 | 15% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:23 | +0.69 | +0.08 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.99 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 14:03 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.62 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:58 | +0.54 | −0.24 | −0.64 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.99 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 21:07 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.06 | +0.56 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mikhail Maltsev L | 5:54 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 18:16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Kaut R | 4:49 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 26:26 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.23 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:30 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 17:23 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 6:43 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 17:11 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 26:54 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 13:57 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 19:45 | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 21:44 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 16:36 | −0.81 | −0.21 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:21 | 1 | −0.91 | −0.06 | −0.44 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.33 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 65:00 | +2.66 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 24:33 | +1.16 | +0.21 | −0.58 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.18 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 |
| Adam Fox D | 25:33 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.09 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 9:21 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 27:07 | +0.19 | +0.26 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vitali Kravtsov R | 10:42 | +0.18 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 21:03 | +0.15 | +0.40 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 10:18 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 9:47 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Libor Hajek D | 11:11 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:55 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 11:14 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:09 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 25:04 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.24 | −0.38 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 21:48 | −0.71 | −0.14 | −0.56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 15:08 | −0.85 | +0.01 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.33 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:56 | −0.87 | +0.18 | −0.57 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.51 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 25:43 | −1.04 | −0.13 | −0.54 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 64:00 | +0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.