PIT beat CBJ 6–3. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sidney Crosby scored at 5:38 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 76%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:13 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Johnny Gaudreau | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:44 | CBJ | Jack RoslovicSH unassisted | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 3:43 | PIT | Josh Archibald from Ryan Poehling | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 3:57 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Jack Roslovic | 1–3 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 10:04 | PIT | Jan Rutta from Kasperi Kapanen | 2–3 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 14:19 | PIT | Danton Heinen from Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 5:38 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Brian Dumoulin | 4–3 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 14:07 | PIT | Danton Heinen from Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Sidney Crosby | 5–3 | 85% → 98% |
| P3 14:51 | PIT | Brock McGinn from Kasperi Kapanen, Jan Rutta | 6–3 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danton Heinen L | 15:52 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.19 | +1.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 16:53 | 1 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.17 | +0.89 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Archibald R | 10:53 | 1 | +1.01 | −0.03 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brock McGinn L | 15:25 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.10 | +0.79 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:49 | 1 | 2 | +0.64 | +0.15 | +0.40 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 20:52 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 9:28 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 17:13 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.22 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 9:39 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 13:34 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 19:47 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 21:10 | −0.08 | +0.25 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 16:56 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 13:24 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 14:24 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 23:25 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:15 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 17:43 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 59:18 | −0.25 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.07 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Kent Johnson C | 17:21 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.61 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 17:57 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.22 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 4:46 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 13:48 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:23 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 18:19 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:44 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 25:51 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 9:35 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Voracek R | 17:00 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 19:37 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:11 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 17:58 | −0.31 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:33 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:38 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.24 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 15:19 | −0.43 | −0.12 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:48 | −0.49 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | −2.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.