MIN beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (VAN 3.1, MIN 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kirill Kaprizov scored on the power play at 3:02 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 54% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:37 |  MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Ryan Hartman, Jake Middleton | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:58 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Tanner Pearson, Brock Boeser | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 16:47 | VAN | Nils Aman from Dakota Joshua, Quinn Hughes | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 19:00 | MIN | Sam Steel from Kirill Kaprizov | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 13:37 | VAN | Dakota Joshua from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Nils Aman | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 8:31 | MIN | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Calen Addison | 3–3 | 22% → 52% |
| OT 3:02 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Mats Zuccarello, Calen Addison | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Aman C | 9:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.12 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Dakota Joshua C | 8:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.09 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bo Horvat C | 21:24 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.09 | +0.35 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:18 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:46 | +0.29 | +0.37 | −0.12 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:41 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 25:26 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 13:00 | +0.13 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 6:17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 11:33 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 18:13 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 16:21 | −0.18 | +0.21 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 20:07 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 15:23 | −0.27 | +0.37 | −0.65 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 16:24 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 24:39 | −0.58 | −0.55 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 18:14 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.48 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 63:02 | −0.15 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 22:35 | 2 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.22 | +0.92 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sam Steel C | 10:39 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.05 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:09 | 1 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Calen Addison D | 16:04 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:16 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 19:42 | +0.03 | +0.27 | −0.46 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 12:07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 20:39 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:38 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 2:58 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:08 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 11:00 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:10 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:03 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 25:26 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:40 | −0.33 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 15:54 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 20:55 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 62:05 | −0.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.