TOR beat DAL 3–2 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nicholas Robertson scored at 3:46 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Scott Wedgewood saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:45 | DAL | Luke Glendening from Radek Faksa, Nils Lundkvist | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 2:31 | TOR | Alexander KerfootPP from Michael Bunting, Rasmus Sandin | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P3 1:59 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from Michael Bunting, William Nylander | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 7:21 | DAL | Tyler SeguinPP from Mason Marchment, Wyatt Johnston | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| OT 3:46 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Glendening C | 14:32 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.15 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 17:31 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.05 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 23:11 | +0.30 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 16:40 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 15:56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 15:46 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:22 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 17:51 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 16:16 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 16:26 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 9:18 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 18:57 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:54 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 23:27 | −0.35 | −0.30 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 14:05 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 11:20 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 19:47 | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:27 | −0.61 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 63:34 | +2.22 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Robertson L | 14:24 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.20 | +1.38 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:24 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.18 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 27:19 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.53 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 19:50 | +0.24 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 26:46 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.17 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.38 | −0.02 | |
| William Nylander R | 22:45 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.38 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 15:59 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 8:31 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 7:24 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 26:31 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 13:35 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 10:02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 12:26 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 20:34 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:35 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:06 | −0.28 | +0.16 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 7:35 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 22:41 | −1.16 | +0.23 | −1.59 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 63:33 | +0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.