Tonight: 13 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2022-10-20 · TD Garden

1 – 2Final/SO

BOS beat ANA 2–1 in a shootout. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Frank Vatrano scored at 6:03 of the second, moving ANA’s win probability from 27% to 47%. Linus Ullmark saved 5.2 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
31 – 36
Expected goals
2.1 – 2.8
xG share
BOS 57%
Home-ice start
BOS 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

ANA goalBOS goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

ANABOS

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

BOS
64:43 TOI
GSAx +5.24
+5.24
ANA
64:50 TOI
GSAx +4.32
+4.32
BOS
1 G, 0 A · 18:00 TOI
On-ice −0.16 · Finishing +0.29 · Playmaking −0.06 · Penalties +0.38 · Shootout +0.99
+1.45

Rough nights

ANA
Kevin Shattenkirk
0 G, 0 A · 16:53 TOI
On-ice −0.19 · Penalties −0.19 · Shootout −0.51
−0.91
ANA
Troy Terry
0 G, 0 A · 18:43 TOI
On-ice +0.11 · Finishing −0.10 · Playmaking −0.11 · Penalties −0.19 · Shootout −0.39
−0.68
BOS
0 G, 0 A · 21:13 TOI
On-ice +0.25 · Finishing −0.40 · Playmaking −0.13 · Shootout −0.33
−0.61

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalANA–BOSWin prob.
P2 2:31 BOSTaylor Hall
from Hampus Lindholm, Matt Grzelcyk
0–153% → 72%
P2 6:03 ANAFrank Vatrano
from Mason McTavish, Ryan Strome
1–127% → 47%

Every player

Show both lineups

ANA

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Frank Vatrano R19:191+0.07−0.11+0.25−0.06−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Pavol Regenda L7:53+0.06−0.10−0.00−0.03−0.00+0.19+0.00−0.00
Jakob Silfverberg R19:28+0.05−0.01−0.11−0.04+0.00+0.19+0.01−0.00
Max Jones L7:38+0.00−0.09−0.08−0.01−0.00+0.19+0.00−0.00
John Klingberg D24:52+0.00+0.22−0.03−0.17−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Ryan Strome C21:371−0.09+0.03−0.12+0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Nathan Beaulieu D13:11−0.13+0.07+0.00−0.02+0.00−0.19+0.00+0.00
Mason McTavish C16:441−0.15−0.08−0.23+0.17−0.02+0.00+0.00−0.00
Adam Henrique C13:20−0.17+0.01−0.07−0.06−0.00+0.00−0.04−0.00
Dmitry Kulikov D18:47−0.23−0.21−0.01−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jamie Drysdale D21:05−0.25−0.16−0.01−0.05−0.03+0.00+0.00+0.00
Cam Fowler D26:39−0.32−0.22−0.03−0.06−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Isac Lundeström C17:23−0.32−0.16−0.09−0.04+0.01+0.00−0.03−0.00
Derek Grant C13:42−0.40−0.11−0.00−0.03−0.01−0.19−0.06−0.00
Trevor Zegras C19:55−0.52−0.04−0.01−0.07−0.01+0.00−0.05−0.33
Maxime Comtois L11:51−0.60−0.00−0.00−0.07−0.01+0.00−0.01−0.51
Troy Terry R18:43−0.68+0.11−0.10−0.11−0.00−0.19+0.00−0.39
Kevin Shattenkirk D16:53−0.91−0.19−0.02−0.01+0.00−0.19+0.00−0.51
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
John Gibson G64:50+4.32

BOS

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Taylor Hall L18:001+1.45−0.16+0.29−0.06−0.00+0.38+0.01+0.99
Nick Foligno L12:57+0.12−0.03−0.00−0.04+0.00+0.19+0.00−0.00
Hampus Lindholm D25:011+0.12+0.24+0.00+0.06+0.01−0.19+0.00+0.00
David Krejci C20:41+0.02+0.33−0.18−0.17+0.01+0.00+0.03−0.00
Connor Clifton D24:08−0.03+0.08−0.06−0.07+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jakub Zboril D15:50−0.04+0.12−0.05−0.11−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Mike Reilly D13:57−0.08+0.01+0.00−0.10+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
A.J. Greer L9:48−0.09−0.06−0.00−0.03+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Trent Frederic C7:13−0.09−0.03−0.03−0.03+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Tomas Nosek L13:16−0.12−0.00−0.09−0.03−0.00+0.00+0.01−0.00
Matt Grzelcyk D20:021−0.15−0.19−0.01+0.03+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Derek Forbort D20:54−0.16+0.11+0.00−0.09+0.01−0.19+0.00+0.00
Patrice Bergeron C21:36−0.20+0.07−0.17−0.24+0.03+0.00+0.10−0.00
Pavel Zacha C18:45−0.23−0.09−0.07−0.08−0.00+0.00+0.01−0.00
David Pastrnak R21:36−0.35+0.31−0.39−0.05−0.01+0.19+0.00−0.39
Jack Studnicka C8:01−0.46+0.00−0.00−0.05−0.00−0.38−0.02−0.00
Charlie Coyle C16:33−0.53+0.03−0.07−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.04−0.51
Jake DeBrusk L21:13−0.61+0.25−0.40−0.13+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.33
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Linus Ullmark G64:43+5.24

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.