STL beat SEA 4–3 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Justin Faulk scored at 2:10 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:16 |  STL | Jordan Kyrou from Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:51 | SEA | Will Borgen from Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 11:55 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 12:12 | STL | Justin Faulk from Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 10:44 | SEA | Ryan Donato from Brandon Tanev, Shane Wright | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 18:31 | SEA | Adam Larsson from Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 3–3 | 28% → 53% |
| OT 2:10 | STL | Justin Faulk from Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Faulk D | 22:15 | 2 | +1.53 | −0.11 | +1.66 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.13 | +0.64 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:52 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.16 | +0.52 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 21:24 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 22:41 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:42 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 12:20 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:19 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 22:58 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:45 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 11:06 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 15:02 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 21:16 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 12:03 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:20 | −0.34 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:20 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 12:28 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:05 | 3 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 62:10 | +0.16 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Borgen D | 16:27 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.16 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 23:37 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.17 | +0.88 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 8:15 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.13 | +0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 22:16 | +0.16 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 6:36 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:56 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 21:58 | +0.14 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 13:36 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:37 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:30 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:49 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:46 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 13:49 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.27 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 20:00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 16:30 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 15:07 | −0.26 | +0.12 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 18:47 | −0.42 | +0.08 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:54 | −0.55 | −0.06 | −0.49 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 62:10 | −0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.