WPG beat COL 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (WPG 2.3, COL 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Neal Pionk scored at 0:31 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:52 |  WPG | Sam GagnerPP from Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:21 | WPG | Neal Pionk from Mason Appleton, Josh Morrissey | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 2:14 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 9:44 | WPG | Cole Perfetti from Blake Wheeler, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 16:26 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Bowen Byram, Valeri Nichushkin | 3–2 | 13% → 29% |
| P2 18:27 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| OT 0:31 | WPG | Neal Pionk from Mason Appleton | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Pionk D | 23:05 | 2 | +1.38 | −0.22 | +1.60 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 9:53 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.05 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 16:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.05 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:26 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:29 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 16:41 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:17 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 15:25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 6:26 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 7:42 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 13:51 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 20:26 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 16:27 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 17:20 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 18:43 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Saku Maenalanen R | 13:52 | −0.37 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:45 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.14 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:31 | −0.21 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 20:18 | 2 | 1 | +1.64 | +0.12 | +1.48 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 21:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.10 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| J.T. Compher L | 15:43 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 23:44 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayson Megna C | 6:19 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Anton Blidh L | 6:03 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 8:01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Kaut R | 11:04 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 24:59 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 17:30 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:13 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:25 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.40 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 21:10 | −0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 14:18 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 17:31 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 14:18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 15:16 | −0.38 | +0.10 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:09 | −0.58 | +0.11 | −0.71 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:15 | −1.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.