BUF beat EDM 4–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 5.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tage Thompson scored at 0:44 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Eric Comrie saved 4.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:00 | BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from Casey Mittelstadt | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:23 |  EDM | Darnell Nurse from Leon Draisaitl, Cody Ceci | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 0:44 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Jeff Skinner | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:15 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Vinnie Hinostroza | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P3 18:27 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Connor McDavid | 3–2 | 0% → 6% |
| P3 19:55 | BUF | Alex TuchEN from Dylan Cozens | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 12:09 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.05 | +0.39 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 11:44 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 8:36 | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:48 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 16:21 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:41 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 17:08 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.20 | +0.34 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:42 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 15:22 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:30 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:21 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.44 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:00 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 20:18 | −0.27 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:10 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:25 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 9:51 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 19:09 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:45 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 60:00 | +4.70 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:22 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.54 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:01 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.55 | +0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:40 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.09 | +0.25 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 26:52 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.46 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 16:29 | +0.18 | +0.46 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 12:43 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 20:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 3:47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 14:12 | −0.02 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 6:27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Markus Niemelainen D | 6:45 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 13:44 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 24:48 | −0.05 | +0.42 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 18:13 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 21:25 | −0.13 | +0.48 | −0.44 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 12:29 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 21:09 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 10:31 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 58:04 | −1.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.