LAK beat NSH 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (LAK 3.9, NSH 4.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matt Roy scored at 17:52 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Cal Petersen saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:32 | NSH | Cody GlassPP from Mikael Granlund, Ryan McDonagh | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 4:24 | LAK | Gabriel VilardiPP from Arthur Kaliyev, Sean Durzi | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:32 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 19:29 | NSH | Tanner Jeannot from Colton Sissons | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 13:00 | LAK | Matt Roy from Brendan Lemieux | 2–3 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 17:52 | LAK | Matt Roy from Gabriel Vilardi, Quinton Byfield | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Roy D | 17:02 | 2 | +1.07 | −0.30 | +1.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 15:47 | 1 | 1 | +1.07 | −0.39 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.77 |
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:36 | +0.20 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 9:16 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 9:53 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 19:20 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 21:07 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 21:27 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 22:01 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 12:00 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 9:39 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 11:41 | −0.28 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 30:12 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 22:42 | −0.36 | +0.17 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 12:41 | −0.38 | +0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:57 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 11:10 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.04 | −0.57 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:29 | −0.63 | −0.09 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.33 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Petersen G | 65:00 | +1.91 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Glass C | 11:41 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.04 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 21:37 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.05 | +0.52 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:17 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:07 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.04 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:09 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:33 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:37 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:45 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 10:26 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:40 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 16:19 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 8:20 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 16:22 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 8:51 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 14:57 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 17:40 | −0.49 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 25:33 | −1.13 | +0.22 | −0.84 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.33 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 20:27 | 1 | −1.24 | +0.14 | −0.64 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 64:51 | +0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.