Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2022-10-17 · Little Caesars Arena

5 – 4Final/OT

LAK beat DET 5–4 in overtime. LAK also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Phillip Danault scored at 1:12 of overtime, moving LAK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ville Husso allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.

Shots on goal
36 – 33
Expected goals
3.6 – 3.1
xG share
LAK 53%
Home-ice start
DET 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

LAK goalDET goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

LAKDET

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

LAK
2 G, 0 A · 22:31 TOI
On-ice −0.07 · Finishing +1.31
+1.22
DET
2 G, 1 A · 16:22 TOI
On-ice +0.11 · Finishing +1.03 · Penalties −0.19
+0.96
DET
Oskar Sundqvist
1 G, 1 A · 16:48 TOI
On-ice +0.12 · Finishing +0.78
+0.90

Rough nights

DET
60:08 TOI
GSAx −1.09
−1.09
LAK
59:43 TOI
GSAx −1.00
−1.00
DET
0 G, 0 A · 22:09 TOI
On-ice −0.10 · Finishing −0.17 · Penalties −0.38
−0.65

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalLAK–DETWin prob.
P1 4:26 DETAdam Erne
from Pius Suter, Olli Maatta
0–153% → 69%
P1 4:45 LAKGabriel Vilardi
from Alex Iafallo, Drew Doughty
1–131% → 47%
P1 14:40 LAKAdrian Kempe
from Kevin Fiala, Anze Kopitar
2–147% → 64%
P2 9:15 DETDavid Perron
from Dominik Kubalik, Olli Maatta
2–232% → 53%
P2 16:18 LAKPhillip Danault
from Trevor Moore, Sean Durzi
3–248% → 71%
P3 11:14 DETDavid PerronPP
from Filip Hronek, Oskar Sundqvist
3–320% → 52%
P3 13:16 LAKAnze Kopitar
from Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala
4–349% → 84%
P3 19:19 DETOskar SundqvistPP
from David Perron, Dominik Kubalik
4–45% → 51%
OT 1:12 LAKPhillip Danault
from Trevor Moore
5–448% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

LAK

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Phillip Danault C22:312+1.22−0.07+1.31−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01
Anze Kopitar C18:5111+0.76+0.02+0.58+0.03+0.02+0.00+0.11
Adrian Kempe R18:0511+0.63+0.00+0.62+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Quinton Byfield R12:51+0.40+0.15−0.00+0.00+0.01+0.19+0.05
Gabriel Vilardi C16:341+0.40+0.15+0.25−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Sean Walker D11:41+0.18+0.23−0.02−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Mikey Anderson D22:35+0.15+0.16−0.22−0.02+0.03+0.19+0.00
Drew Doughty D28:301+0.08+0.21−0.12−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Blake Lizotte C8:23+0.05+0.14−0.10−0.02−0.00+0.00+0.04
Alex Iafallo L14:411+0.04+0.05−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Kevin Fiala L15:592−0.07+0.15−0.21+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Brandt Clarke D10:45−0.07+0.12−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.19+0.00
Matt Roy D18:56−0.09−0.04−0.06+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Viktor Arvidsson L17:52−0.16−0.07−0.09+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Carl Grundstrom R7:13−0.16+0.06−0.21−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Brendan Lemieux L8:24−0.21+0.11−0.14+0.00−0.00−0.19+0.00
Sean Durzi D22:091−0.23−0.21+0.01+0.00−0.03+0.00+0.00
Trevor Moore L21:492−0.47+0.00−0.46−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.01
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Jonathan Quick G59:43−1.00

DET

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
David Perron L16:2221+0.96+0.11+1.03+0.02−0.01−0.19+0.00
Oskar Sundqvist C16:4811+0.90+0.12+0.78−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01
Adam Erne L11:571+0.57−0.19+0.75−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00
Olli Maatta D16:172+0.07+0.06+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Moritz Seider D21:29+0.02+0.03−0.01+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Robert Hagg D17:07+0.00−0.21+0.01+0.00+0.01+0.19+0.00
Filip Hronek D22:461−0.01+0.05−0.05+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Pius Suter C10:031−0.08−0.07−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.01
Ben Chiarot D19:46−0.10−0.23−0.07−0.02+0.01+0.19+0.00
Dominik Kubalik L19:042−0.14+0.13−0.24−0.02+0.00+0.00−0.01
Dylan Larkin C23:19−0.14+0.25−0.58+0.00−0.00+0.19+0.00
Michael Rasmussen C10:31−0.14−0.15−0.01+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.01
Joe Veleno C8:48−0.21−0.08−0.05−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.07
Filip Zadina R14:25−0.24−0.22−0.00−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Gustav Lindstrom D15:28−0.25−0.19−0.05−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Andrew Copp C19:08−0.42−0.34−0.00−0.00+0.03+0.00−0.11
Elmer Soderblom L11:13−0.46−0.16−0.30−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Lucas Raymond L22:09−0.65−0.10−0.17−0.00−0.01−0.38+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Ville Husso G60:08−1.09

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.